3% Treasury Bond yields aside calls for a double dip recession seem premature as personal incomes and expenditures continue to post progress in May and supportive of modest economic growth. Inflation remains in check as well.
A few of our new holdings are moving well this morning on little or no news.
Telecom service company IDT Corp. is up 7% on potentially being added to the Russell index.
For green car advocates Tesla Motors is due to stage its IPO tomorrow and markets the biggest auto IPO since Ford Motors over 50 years ago. At minimum the Tesla IPO and subsequent stock performance will be an intriguing barometer of investors interest and belief in the future of Green autos and could bode well for future green auto starts ups: Fisker and Smith Electric Vehicles.
The Tesla story is intriguing but intriguing is not enough of a reason to devote capital to at this point. The Tesla battery operated sports car is very beautiful. If you haven’t seen the car you should. It reminds me of a Porsche in shape with a targa convertible top. Price is in the $50K range and they’ve sold just over 1000 vehicles. But the company is bleeding cash with a loss of $29 million in the 1Q.
Toyota has invested $50 million into Tesla but at this point in time the company is supported by a $465 million staged loan from the Department of Energy.
If that’s no enough Tesla CEO Elon Musk will be selling $20 million dollars of his own shares in the company. Lack of revenue and earnings would eliminate it from our consideration but it will be fascinating to watch nonetheless.
Long IDT
BP
Interesting story on whats under the hood of SRI ETF’s:
Buyer Beware: What’s Really in Your Socially Responsible ETF?
Summer doldrums markets as participants are waiting for the FOMC message later today. While few expect any real change, the tone reflected in the post meeting communique tends to move markets.
NDR continues to predict that no Double Dip recession is on the horizon. Their Recession Probability Model remains at 0%. Economic activity advanced in 47 states in May and over the past three months.
Industrial Goods manufacturer Hawk Corporation (which we have a position in for clients) makes fuel cell components has raised their 2010 guidance based on an improving economy. The stock is responding nicely up $2 to $23.
Chinese Health Club owner Soko Fitness and Spa SOKF may be finally coming to life on news of two new facilities in the Harbin area. Soko is an example of a company where the valuation is hard to ignore with earnings capable of .50 cents a share in 2010 and .80 or more for 2011. While the stock has done little in light of the weakness in the Chinese stock market it has held up reasonably well. Should present growth rates continue for another year the valuation would be very compressed. Selling at just 2x book value and 7x present earnings with no long term debt, .70 in cash along with +50% revenue growth and 80% member retention rate this has some serious potential. But beware SOKF can be volatile and isn’t heavily traded with a big spread between bid and offer.
From the Carbon Disclosure Project: Corporate Clean Energy Investment Trends in Brazil, China, India and South Africa pdf
Long HWK, SOKF (client and personal accounts)
Yesterdays rally confirmed our more constructive intermediate term outlook as the S&P 500 pushed above the 200 day moving average on a 90% up day. We have not seen a cluster of 90% up days since 2009 during the strongest points of the rally. Bears will comment that it was a fake rally due to high frequency trading, but as the coach of the New England Patriots Bill Belichick would drolly would say: “It is what it is”.
Yesterday while driving home I remembered a conversation from the mid 1990’s with a major SRI fund manager who insisted upon owning a major oil company despite their environmental screening policies. His rationale was that this particular company was the best of the lot, the most progressive within the space. Care to guess what that company was? Hint: my initials.
Being that I’m somewhat of a financial geek I get excited when our model identifies companies that are also identified as promising by other proven investment models. Case in point is IDT Corp. which also ranks very high on the esteemed
Piotroski model
as well as our own. We don’t own the stock for clients at present but will begin to look closely at it.
Also, will be breaking down a host of Green Tech firms looking for revenue acceleration. Stories about this morning about the promise of Green Tech but unless revenues start to move higher its only a trade and not an investment.
All the best,
BP
This blog has been relatively inactive for the past two months as I try to determine its future.
From my perspective there is and has been a great deal of hyperbole regarding “green” stocks that fundamentals such as valuation and balance sheet strength are essentially ignored.
There may always be companies with better technologies but if the price is high relative to value the chances are strong that unless you’re a very short term trader you’ll eventually have a significant loss. While there is no perfect formula for investing, not all methodologies are created equal nor do they produce the same results in the long run.
Our methodology revolves around growth at as low a cost as reasonably possible. Many of our investments are socially “neutral” where the investment has little or no social, environmental or humane impact. Ideally we would all love to own a very green proactive portfolio but the volatility and risks associated with being totally proactive are simply too high. The bottom line is you must make money for yourself in the long run hence we blend both old school fundamental analysis with environmental screening.
