Background music: Ennophonic by Redlounge Orchestra
The most popular question I frequently hear is: “Your back test results look great, almost too good to be true but do your portfolio designs really working going forward?” Very fair question and if you don’t mind this is a great time to add some legalese “Past results don’t guarantee future results or even that a model devised by man and laptops will actually turn a profit in the future”. You know the drill, a back test can look great but will it work in the future or will it be a flop?
Late last year we took (what we thought) was a brave and potentially embarrassing step by placing three distinct trading models on the quantitative trading platform Collective2.com By doing this we could demonstrate the effectiveness of our systems in real time going forward, rather than relying on hypothetical back-testing. While there is no actual cash behind these C2 portfolios we trade them on the C2 platform as if there were like any other client portfolio.
In addition, if you’re intrigued and curious about our holdings, volatility or turnover C2 is a great place to check us out. You’ll see our winners and alas, our losers. In addition to our holdings, Cs provides a month by month return graph. You’ll also notice in the link below that C2 has given our portfolios a rank which is based on their proprietary ranking system and our rank as of August 24 is 9.95 and the highest possible rank is 10. According to C2 “In general a ranking above 5.0 is good. A rating above 7.0 is excellent.”
(Click on this image to be directed to our C2 accounts)
RMHI/OP III has approximately 30 holdings when fully invested and is designed for investors with over $100,000. It is by default the portfolio management system we employ for new accounts. Its also very scalable where at present we have accounts approaching $2 million in size using RMHI/OP III.
In terms of socially responsible investing, it would be very easy to alter one or two holdings so that the portfolio would meet a Vegan investing criteria.
Year to date 8/23 our C2 account III has returned 34% versus 18% for the S&P 500. Returns include commissions and accounting for slippage. Returns do no include management expenses.
You’ll also see that its possible to subscribe to our models on C2. We don’t encourage C2 subscription hence we keep the monthly cost prohibitive.
If you have any questions you can always call us. Meanwhile Dodgers / Red Sox are starting and it is a Sunday night after all.
Brad
Background music: Just chillin by Polished Chrome
Earlier this week we went on a road trip to check off a Bucket List item that after living in Colorado for 20 years and a deep interest in 19th century western history: The Little Bighorn. While Custer’s defeat in Southern Montana is not the black hole conspiracy mystery such as the JFK assassination, it remains so full of unanswered questions. One of the many things remarkable about the Little Bighorn is the placement of markers on the spots where U.S. cavalrymen fell. The various Indian nations are still in the process of placing their own markers where their warriors fell as well. These markers give you a really good idea of happenings of those fateful hours.
![IMG_0670[1]](http://dev.www.greeninvestment.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/IMG_06701.jpg)
Happenings from last week and looking to the week ahead:
Our client portfolios exceeded the return of the S&P 500 by a hefty 2.7% last week due largely to the sale of National Technical Systems which surged 38% on the news of its sale for $23 a share.
While its possible we may currently be in for a mild market pullback the underlying economic fundamentals still support our full equity exposure.
Bob Diehl of nospinforecast.com who developed the Aggregate Spread is giving us an all-clear signal in the search for an impending recession. His method looks 9 months into the future and is giving a green light up to at least April 2014.
In other macro economic news recessionalert.com is giving an all-clear signal as well. Dwaine Van Vuuren of recessionalert (RA) has developed a very intriguing stock market health model that incorporates economic data and stock market technical statistics. I expect I’ll be tinkering with his models shortly and investigating how well the synergy exists between his work and our own.
Green Investing Alert: Our proprietary quantitative ranking systems have identified a stock long enamored by the socially responsible / green investing community: Gaiam
Gaiam is a retailer that caters to the yoga/wellness market. What may be the catalyst going forward is the sale of their stake in Real Goods Solar which is allowing Gaiam to add a significant amount of cash to their balance sheet.
We have no positions in Gaiam at the time of this post.
Brad Pappas
We are pleased to announce our portfolio performance numbers which include all fees including management expenses and all trading costs.
We have decided that due to the diverse number of holdings per account that the fairest and most accurate way to distinguish performance is to group accounts into two classes: More than 20 holding and under 20 holdings. Most new accounts will be over 20 holdings by default.
RMHI over 20 holdings year to date as of June 30, 2013: + 21.74% net
RMHI under 20 holdings year to date as of June 30, 2013: +18.68% net
These numbers compare to the S&P 500 for the same time of +12.63%
According to Evestmentalliance.com our 20+ portfolios rank Top 5% nationwide for year to date small cap category.
This morning it was announced that National Technical Systems NTSC has been sold to Aurora Capital Group for $23 a share which is a premium of 38% over last nights close, our cost was in the $14 range.
This deal is expected to close by year end. Client shares were sold this morning for $22.83 a share.
Certainly takes the sting out of yesterdays decline
Brad
No position at the time of this post.
Music in the background: The Black Keys “Have Love Will Travel”. I’ll pull no punches I love listening to the Black Keys especially at the gym. But, for all their appeal has there been a band that has borrowed from more artists? Bo Diddley should be collecting some of their royalties.
Frequently, we have to tell clients to ignore the noise of the media which will bombard the investor with combinations of fear or euphoria bordering on the manic. Frequently those opinions are jaded with political or investment biases which make their statements virtually worthless. Even more frustrating are the multi-handed economists who never appear to make a decisive stance “On one hand, then on the other hand etc.)
Its essential to tune out the noise and find sources of information that are purely data driven without biases and one very good source is Recessionalert.com (RA)
This morning RA released their Long Leading Index (USLLGI) and I’ll use their own words to describe the USLLGI:
“The USLLGI takes a far-reaching forward view of U.S economic growth by tracking 8 reliable indicators which have consistently peaked 12-18 months before the onset of NBER defined recessions since the early 1950?s. The growths of these indicators, together with their diffusion index, are combined into a 9-factor composite to give a generalized view of future overall U.S economic growth. When the USLLGI falls below 0 for 2 consecutive months you have a signal that recession will occur in 12-18 months.”
This is an economic timing method not a stock market timing system. The lead times are long, for example in the 2007-2008 “Great Recession” the LLI tipped its hand in early 2006 by crossing over the 0 level. In 2011 it made a near miss by approaching 0 but it never broke through. At present its at a healthy reading of .1 which largely eliminates the chances of recession in 2014. Its too early to say for 2015 but we’ll have an idea by the end of this year.
In the meantime, ignore the fear and noise. The potential for a new secular bull market has some real potential.
Be careful out there
Brad Pappas
Its late July and the slow season for markets may be settling in but so far its been an astonishing year. The stock market this year reminds me of The Terminator it just never stops moving higher and all sell offs so far have been very minor representing a brief chance to add to positions. Eventually the rally will end but anyone’s guess is as good as mine as for when it will be.
The two websites that we use for determining our equity exposure:
recessionalert.com and nospinforcast.com are both in agreement that no recession is in site for at least nine months from now. So, with that information we remain fully invested in stocks. Expanding economies are generally a negative for bonds and that has been the case for Treasuries as well as for gold. It appears markets are moving back to their normal pre-2008 levels and investors who’ve been under a rock the whole time are putting money back to work again.
Trading for us has slowed down as well which I’m grateful for. Our models are now set in stone and other than very minor tweaks I don’t envision any changes to them as they have been astonishingly effective.
We do have a few recent buys:
American Electric Technologies AETI
Penford Corp PENX
National Technical Systems NTSC
all three score at the top of our ranking system
sold from portfolios are
Mutual First Financial MFSF
Netsol Technologies
Brad Pappas
RMHI is long all positions
