Interesting story on whats under the hood of SRI ETF’s:
Buyer Beware: What’s Really in Your Socially Responsible ETF?
Summer doldrums markets as participants are waiting for the FOMC message later today. While few expect any real change, the tone reflected in the post meeting communique tends to move markets.
NDR continues to predict that no Double Dip recession is on the horizon. Their Recession Probability Model remains at 0%. Economic activity advanced in 47 states in May and over the past three months.
Industrial Goods manufacturer Hawk Corporation (which we have a position in for clients) makes fuel cell components has raised their 2010 guidance based on an improving economy. The stock is responding nicely up $2 to $23.
Chinese Health Club owner Soko Fitness and Spa SOKF may be finally coming to life on news of two new facilities in the Harbin area. Soko is an example of a company where the valuation is hard to ignore with earnings capable of .50 cents a share in 2010 and .80 or more for 2011. While the stock has done little in light of the weakness in the Chinese stock market it has held up reasonably well. Should present growth rates continue for another year the valuation would be very compressed. Selling at just 2x book value and 7x present earnings with no long term debt, .70 in cash along with +50% revenue growth and 80% member retention rate this has some serious potential. But beware SOKF can be volatile and isn’t heavily traded with a big spread between bid and offer.
From the Carbon Disclosure Project: Corporate Clean Energy Investment Trends in Brazil, China, India and South Africa pdf
Long HWK, SOKF (client and personal accounts)
While running screens on a slow market day I ran the “Magic Formula” screen:
A solar stock passed the screen: GT Solar International SOLR
Alternative fuel component maker Fuel System Solutions FSYS did as well.
No positions
Summary: The epic rally of the past 7 months has appears to have hit a wall at 1100 on the S&P 500. This does not mean we cannot rally beyond 1100 or that the market must now decline, trending sideways for a period of months may be the likeliest scenario. The time period of November to April is historically the strongest six months of the year, particularly November and December, so strength into the year- end is a possibility. Lowry’s Research has stated they expect the current pullback to be short term. Our strategy of Small Caps over Large Caps is still in force although I’m reviewing future holdings as the weaker Dollar tilts the odds to favor Large Caps. My thought is that going forward the disparity between Small and Large Cap stocks will narrow. The US stock market is no longer “Undervalued” but merely “Fairly Valued” in my estimation we are reducing exposure to stocks periodically on strength which I expect by December.
Back in the Spring I proposed that the stock market would initiate a rally of historic proportions with a target of 1100-1150 sometime in 2009. This prediction was based on past precedents the belief that no one at the time was discounting the end of the recession by Summer. This target was breached on October 21st. While I consider the stock market now fairly valued, the signs of a classic major top in the stock market are simply not present at this time. The current pullback has the ingredients of a short-term correction rather than the start of a new leg down. Major tops take time to develop and our timing service Lowry’s points out that “Every major market top in Lowry’s 76 year history has been preceded by a sustained rise in Selling Pressure.” There is no evidence of a sustained rise in Selling Pressure at this time.
Adding to the lack of incentive for a new down-leg in stock prices is the fact that interest rates are at minimal levels and while market valuations are fairly valued at 14.5 normalized earnings, which is about 2 multiple points less than historical averages. Since 1932, the six months after the end of the recession has seen gains on average of 9%. Curiously, the two market years most resembling the past year: 1938 and 1975 saw gains of only 3% for the next six months after the end of the recession. In addition, small cap outperformance is maintained by an average return of 7% in the six months following the end of a recession. The issue of Small Cap outperformance is subject for review due to the effects of the declining dollar. A declining dollar assists the performance of Large Cap stocks. Small Caps peaked on September 19 and if the trend of Small Cap’s lagging performance persists for another month, future additions will be Large Caps.
Believe it or not we’re going to get an economic recovery, it may be anemic by historical standards but it will be a recovery. Due to the stimulus package there will be a significant infrastructure build out in the US starting in 2010. Warren Buffet’s purchase of Burlington Northern is a classic smart move to get in front of the infrastructure build.
The 3rd Quarter of 2009 turned into quite a prosperous quarter for RMHI clients as our exposure to small cap equities with international diversification has been a winner since the market bottom in March. While the past few months have been quite good, I believe that going forward gains will moderate especially if we stay in a trading range with 1100 on the S&P 500 being the top end of the range.
Historically speaking, the period post-recession has produced gains but to a lesser degree than the period preceding the end of the recession. In other words, its likely that the “easy money” has been made (as if its ever “easy”!) but there still are gains to be made although our exposure to equities will be reduced as the risk reward is not quite what it was in March. There is always the chance that unknown world events could throw a Molotov cocktail into the markets, so having cash off the table could prove to be prudent.
Until there is solid revenue growth in the US, my view is that we could be entering a period of market digestion, not unlike what we experienced in 2004 (the SP 500 did return +8% in ’04). Gains were still made just not nearly at the rate in 2003. Small cap GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) should still outperform, just at a lesser pace.
It seems to me that in the past 10 years we’ve bounced from Bubble to Bubble which eventually pop sooner or later. The current interest rate environment is unsustainable in my view, but the hazards of reaching for yield by going out farther and farther on maturities could be the next major bubble to pop. Timing is next to impossible to predict but it could be within the next two years.
The current 0% interest rate environment induced by the Federal Reserve has created a curse on holding cash. The 0% return is forcing investor’s including retirees to invest in increasingly longer term maturities to gain incremental increases in yield. Desperate to increase their yield they’ll be very vulnerable to a pullback in bond prices. While the Federal Reserve controls the yield and price of short term Treasures, market forces have a much greater influence on longer term maturities and the Fed’s support of Treasury prices will eventually end. Fear continues to guide their decision making as equities were almost completely avoided this Spring which means they missed the 20% + returns in favor of bonds yielding 2%-4%. The lure for this move is the perception of “safety” but in the longer term this perception could be a very elusive mirage.
The catch is that our deficits and issuance of debt is having a declining effect on the dollar and at some point investors, especially foreign investors will demand higher rates for the risk of owning Treasuries. While the debate over future inflation is mute at this point, my view is that eventually interest rates must go higher eventually, especially if we experience declines in unemployment in 2010. What would happen to the prices of long term debt should rates rise to 7% or even 9%, the collapse in bond prices for those investors would be devastating. This is the basis for my belief that should employment rebound in 2010 or 2011, it could be accompanied by a significant pullback in stock prices, which would take their cue from falling bond prices and higher yields.
I realize the returns on short-term debt are almost next to nothing, but the risk inherent in owning short-term debt during an interest rate spike is not nearly as significant as longer-term maturities. I’d rather be safe with our ownership of short-term bonds rather than the higher yielding long-term maturities. Short term interest rates are set primarily by the Federal Reserve and its my view that those rates will not rise until a meaningful increase in employment is underway, this could remain elusive for most if not all of 2010.
While the declining US dollar presents problems longer term for US interest rates there are positive ways to invest with a weaker dollar in mind. Generally a weaker dollar is positive for US equities, especially Large Cap Growth stocks like Apple or Google. Both of these stocks rank very high in our model so they’ve been mainstays this year. In addition, countries and regions that are commodity oriented such as Latin America. Foreign Treasury bonds are another good option and we’ve owned them for most of the year. Gold is another interesting way to prosper from the declining dollar. With the resumption of risk appetites worldwide investors are liquidating dollars and transferring the assets to Gold. Gold also plays a valuable role in the event of a crisis that could erupt in the Middle East should Iran remain contentious regarding its nuclear plans.
All The Best,
Brad Pappas
Last night before heading off to bed I checked the overnight futures market to see we were down 10 on the SP 500. This made sense given the new and potentially increasing trade war with China. (Gee ya think a trade war with China is a good thing since we need the kindness of strangers to buy our Treasuries?)
If this market were in true Bear mode we’d probably have added to the loss of 10 points, given the news. If you went to bed Short or in cash you’d be sleeping smugly……but don’t look now as we’re actually up 5. What Chinese Trade selloff?
Look, there are lots and loads and bunches of reasons to hate this market. Baskets of reasons to say: “We’ve run too far too fast” or “the market has disconnected from our reality” and I wouldn’t disagree with you. In fact, the Bearish reasons always sound more intelligent and thought out than astandard Bullish argument which always has a tendency to sound either insane (A Bull Market Birther: Show me the birth certificate for this Bull Market) or SweetSallySunshine.
Whats undeniable is that Central Bankers round the world are putting massive amounts of cash into their systems, and while banks may not be lending that doesn’t mean they’re not investing. Managers that I have enormous respect for are getting poked in the eye each time they lay out a new series of Shorts. I just have to wonder if they might actually enjoy the pain so self inflicted?
My point is….as I usually do have a conclusive point: The market at this point in time is eerily similar to other periods of economic transition such as 2003, major selloffs are not to be found. My most optimistic guess from this Spring was no major weakness till the first quarter of 2010. Until proven otherwise….that might be the correct path to assume.
On a side note: There is a flip side that’s not so endearing to years of forest fire prevention and trimming: Mountain Pine Beetles. I have hundreds of trees on my land and this year will lose at least a dozen old Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pines. It breaks your heart to see a 150 or 250 year old tree that is doomed and must be cut down. Somehow you always wonder by cutting it down in an effort to save the surrounding trees are you doing the right thing? Without a doubt the answer is always yes. The MPB seems to be natures way of saying “if you’re not going to allow fires and harvesting to take out your old trees I’ll give you a bug of mass destruction.”
We’re a small private investment manager of the traditional variety. By saying we’re Traditional I mean that we don’t use shift the responsibility of investment management to mutual funds or other third party investment management firms, which add on extra layers of fees. By Traditional we mean that we actually do our own security analysis and portfolio trading and allocation with Charles Schwab as our primary custodian of client assets, we don’t take custody of assets. This was how most investment managers practiced when I first broke into the business in 1982 but with the emergence of Financial Planning and Mutual Funds the layers of fees and responsibilities created greater distance from the manager to the portfolio.
We have a deliberate bias for looking at small cap and micro cap investments for three primary reasons:
1. Small companies are more likely to be mispriced or undervalued relative to large cap peers. For example, Apple has at present 34 brokerage firm analysts following the company. Every bit of data produced by the firm is analyzed, frequently to the extreme. Its extremely difficult to maintain an edge under that type of scrutiny. However for the Small Cap companies we follow and invest in its not uncommon to have zero to 1 analyst following the firm. By following companies well below the analyst radar screens the scarcity of information can create opportunities we hope to exploit for our clients.
This is hardly a knock against investing in Large Cap companies as it is our desire to have some sort of advantage when investing. While Apple may continue to provide significant gains for its shareholders, the stock does sell at 29 times current earnings and the opportunity to have a competitive advantage over our peers is minimized by valuation and intense coverage.
2. The advantage of being small: Being that RMHI is a small investment management firm I deliberately decided to use our small size to our advantage. As investment firms get larger over time they’re forced to move up the scale with investments they consider. A firm that focused on Small Caps during their early years is forced to consider Mid to Large Caps as their assets expand over time.
Simply put, we can consider investment stakes in companies that larger firms cannot consider. This is especially important for the Socially Responsible Investor since many terrific Green Technology companies are $50 million to $200 million in capitalization, too small for most managers. Secondly, our small size allows us to still invest in Healthcare through benign service providers without resorting to Healtcare investments within the S&P 500 Index.
Our identification of RINO Intl. (RINO) before it even gained admission to NASDAQ while it was selling at just 4x 2009 earnings is a classic example. At the time of our spotting the stock at $4 a share the capitalization was just approximately $100 million and thus too small for most managers or even many mutual funds to consider.
